Analyse How and Why Economists Forecast Growth in Transport Demand Essay
In the UK, for example, it was forecasted that by the year 2010 road congestion will increase by 65%, while motorway congestion by 268%. By introducing 25 years plan ‘The Future of Transport’ government is considering to increase the capacity of roads and by reduce congestion.Also forecast of transport demand can show the effectiveness of introduction of transport policies at both national and local levels. In order to make these forecasts economists have to gather and analyse past statistics of demand and also make other assumptions of population growth, GDP growth, fuel prices and the amount of license holders.
For freight transport industrial output and import of goods have also to be assumed. However, as forecasts are based on past info, they might not reflect the real picture of situation and lead to market and government failure.